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Idéer, indsigter og provokerende informationer om konkurrenceevne, vækstscenarier og menneskelige potentialer for alle, der ønsker at se upside i aktiemarkederne, de indre universer eller egen formkurve på landevejene. Giv gerne DINE synspunkter til kende eller del informationer, du mener er relevante for økonomisk, spirituel og fysisk velfærd anno 2012. Eller skriv til mig, hvis du har forslag til temaer relateret til potentialeudvikling på alle planer, du gerne vil ha' afdækket, uddybet eller debatteret...
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Med forsynets uheld eller forstand: Læsset i Kina væltede...

Posted by Pernille
Pernille
Pernille Svensson har mere end 25 års erfaring indenfor finanssektoren i roller som Fund Manager i Hongkong ho...
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on Søndag, 02 september 2012 in ØKONOMISK VELFÆRD

30. april 2012 skrev jeg i min lille blog set af 345 læsere følgende: "Så er det cementeret - VÆKSTEN I KINA STÅR FOR FALD... En lillebitte nyhed i det fjerne med stor mulig effekt i det nære: Det gik formentlig den menige dansker upåagtet hen, at én af top-5 bankerne i Kina i fredags rapporterede et 1.kvt. resultat markant lavere end tidligere. Men det kan blive en afgørende signal om gearkasse-problemer i verdens mest afgørende vækstmotor lige nu...." http://www.potentialeudvikling.dk/index.php/pernilles-blog/entry/sa-er-det-cementeret-vaeksten-i-kina-star-for-fald

 

Det kinesiske aktiemarked har siden haft sin længste faldende periode siden 2004. Det er de små nyheder, der får et læs til at vælte!

 

 

30.august 2012 skriver Bloomberg nu i artiklen "China’s Growing Economic Crisis" at Kinas hidtil uudgrundelige evne til at føre stimulus-politik (USD630bn alene i 2008) står for fald. Korrespondenten mener, at vi nu de facto lever i den nye æra som Ian Bremmer i "Every Nation for Itself", Maj 2012, kalder for G-Zero æraen.

 

Så kan vi lære det!

 

NULVÆKST!

 

NUL VÆKST!

  

Bremmer: China’s leaders have acknowledged that the country’s growth model is “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable,” and they know that their ability to guide China through the next stage of its development is far from certain. India, Brazil, and Turkey can continue to grow for the next ten years with the same basic formula that triggered growth over the past ten.

....For the first time in seven decades, there is no single power or alliance of powers ready to take on the challenges of global leadership. A generation ago, the United States, Europe, and Japan were the world’s powerhouses, the free-market democracies that propelled the global economy forward. Today, they struggle just to find their footing.

 

Og hvad betyder så dét?

 

Bremmer: Over the past 30 years, the big winners were states that adapted to and profited from the processes of Western-led globalization. But in a world that is more likely to have several regional centers of gravity, one in which no single country can afford to play the global leader, governments will have to create more of their own opportunities. The ability to pivot will be a critical advantage.

 

 

The book profiles several pivot states, from Turkey and Vietnam to Canada and Kazakhstan.

 

 

Offentlige investeringer - selv i trilliard-størrelser - som vi har set det realiseret i Kina og set foreslået i mindst én mindre nordisk økonomi med rød-hvidt flag med eneste sigte at skabe vækst holder ikke i det 21. århundrede... Det skaber istedet tomme bygninger og veje og tomme offentlige kasser, hvis ikke bobler, da virksomhederne i mellemtiden forbløder under indtryk af de høje omkostninger. Mao. livsforlængende medicin baseret på den forkerte diagnose af patienten.

 

Aktiemarkedet i Kina er faldet 8% de seneste 2 måneder og er dermed andenværste aktiemarked ud af 93 aktiemarkeder. 58% af virksomhederne har rapporteret skuffende resultater ift. forventningerne. Lageropbygningen er vokset 17%, mens indtjeningen pr. aktie samlet set for de 2453 virksomheder er faldet 28% i første halvår. Se herunder i hvilke virksomheder især og hvilke ikke....

 

...eller prøv at tænke til ende, mere langsigtet: Hvad sker der egentlig i en verden uden vækst? Og hvis så, hvad er da de bærende kræfter bag vindere og tabere? 

 

"China’s Growing Economic Crisis"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-30/don-t-look-to-china-for-economic-growth.html

 

Indtjeningsfald hvor?: 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-31/china-s-stock-futures-drop-as-citic-securities-earnings-decline.html

 

Bremmers indspark til debatten:

http://www.amazon.com/Every-Nation-Itself-Winners-ebook/dp/B005GSZJGG

 

 

 

 

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Pernille Svensson har mere end 25 års erfaring indenfor finanssektoren i roller som Fund Manager i Hongkong hos Dresdner og i Danmark på internationale aktier, især Globale Emerging Markets hos Danske Invest og Nordea, Fund Selector for Danske Capital, Aktieplatformsspecialist på førende handelsplatform (Saxo Bank), Analytiker for Nomad Investments (Jorden Rundt på 800 dage - hvor hun under Asienskrisen besøgte virksomheder i 75 lande) samt Cand.polit og ID-Coach. Idag er hun stifter, katalysator og kursusleder hos Center for Potentialeudvikling, der udbyder kurser i aktieinvestering, personlig udvikling og fysisk topform for tidsoptimister. Hun er på 6. år på vej jorden rundt i bjerge på cykel med Team Global Cykling en uge om året.

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